64tianwang, Pacific Time, September 29, 2026 (volunteer editors)
【天网美西时间2026年9月29日讯】（天网义工编辑）
On the afternoon of September 29, President Trump put two sentences on the table. One was a forward. One was a quote. Both said the same thing: the regime in Iran no longer holds the Strait of Hormuz.
美西时间9月29日下午，川普总统把两句话放到桌上。一句是转发。一句是引用。两句说的是同一件事：伊朗政权不再握着霍尔木兹海峡。
The forward was on X. President Trump pushed a report by energy investor Alexander Stahel titled Iran Has Lost Control of The Strait. Stahel’s number is not a slogan. Middle East oil exports, he wrote, are back near 94 percent. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are running a shuttle: smaller hulls hug the Omani side, dump the crude ship-to-ship in the Gulf of Oman, then turn around and load again. Iran, he wrote, has been largely unable to load at Kharg Island since August.
转发在 X 上。川普总统推送能源投资者亚历山大·斯塔赫尔的报告，标题就是《伊朗已失去对海峡的控制》。斯塔赫尔给的不是口号。他写：中东石油出口已回到约百分之九十四。阿联酋、沙特、科威特在跑穿梭——小船贴阿曼一侧出去，到阿曼湾船对船卸油，再掉头装。伊朗自八月起，在哈尔克岛几乎装不出油。
（配图一：川普总统 X 原帖。转发斯塔赫尔《伊朗已失去对海峡的控制》。美西2026年9月29日下午。）
(Photo 1: President Trump’s X post forwarding Stahel, “Iran Has Lost Control of The Strait.” Afternoon, Sept. 29, 2026, Pacific.)
1. Sept. 28, 7:14 a.m. — the quote
一、9月28日上午7时14分——那条引用
On Truth Social, President Trump quoted Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Dubowitz wrote at 7:14 a.m. on September 28, 2026: Admiral Cooper and the men and women of the U.S. military have won the Battle of Hormuz. The regime in Iran does not control the Strait.
在真实社交上，川普总统引用国防民主基金会总裁马克·杜博维茨。杜博维茨于2026年9月28日上午7时14分写道：库珀海军上将和美军官兵打赢了霍尔木兹之战。伊朗政权并不控制海峡。
By the afternoon of September 29 the quote on Truth Social showed more than 2,170 retruths and 8,230 likes. The sentence is short because the claim is large. Seven months after the opening strikes of February 28, Washington is no longer arguing who should hold the waterway. It is saying who does.
到9月29日下午，真实社交上这条引用显示逾2170次转帖、8230赞。句子短，是因为判断大。2月28日开打七个月后，华盛顿不再争论这条水道该归谁。它在说这条水道现在归谁。
（配图二：真实社交原帖。川普总统引用杜博维茨：美军打赢霍尔木兹之战。2026年9月28日上午7时14分。）
(Photo 2: The Truth Social post. President Trump quoting Dubowitz: the U.S. military has won the Battle of Hormuz. 7:14 a.m., Sept. 28, 2026.)
2. What the strait was, and what it is
二、海峡曾经是什么，现在是什么
Before the war, about 130 commercial ships a day crossed Hormuz, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne crude. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard then declared the lane closed to “unfriendly” traffic, laid mines, and fired on hulls. The United States answered with a blockade of Iranian ports, mine-clearing, and escorted transits.
开战前，每天约130艘商船过霍尔木兹，承运全球约五分之一的海运原油。伊朗革命卫队随后对“不友好”船只宣布关闭航道，布设水雷，对船壳开火。美国的回答是封锁伊朗港口、扫雷、护航过境。
Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, has said the internationally recognized lanes are clear of Iranian mines, that U.S. forces have escorted thousands of commercial ships, and that Iran has exported zero oil through the blockade while Gulf partners have moved hundreds of millions of barrels. Iranian officials still talk as if they run a toll booth. They built a paper authority. They still shoot at ships they call unauthorized.
美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀海军上将说：国际承认的航道已清掉伊朗水雷，美军已护送数千艘商船，伊朗在封锁下出口原油为零，海湾伙伴则运出数亿桶。伊朗官员仍把海峡说成自己的收费站。他们做了一个纸面管理局。他们仍对所称“未经授权”的船开火。
Stahel’s shuttle is the fact that cuts the speech. If the oil is leaving by the Omani rail, if Kharg is dark, if the large hulls wait in the Gulf of Oman for the small ones to come back, then the regime is not the landlord. It is a gun on the bank that can still wound a ship and cannot stop the river.
斯塔赫尔的穿梭航线是切开讲话的那根事实。若油从阿曼一侧出去，若哈尔克岛是暗的，若大船在阿曼湾等小船回来，那么这个政权就不是房东。它是岸上的一杆枪：还能打伤一条船，挡不住这条河。
64tianwang comment:
六四天网认为：
Control is not a communiqué. Control is whether the crude moves, and whose navy the insurers will follow. President Trump did not invent Stahel’s 94 percent. He did not invent Dubowitz’s sentence. He put both on his own paper so the argument is no longer held in a closed room.
控制权不是一份公报。控制权是原油走不走、保险公司跟哪一支海军走。川普总统没有发明斯塔赫尔的百分之九十四。也没有发明杜博维茨那句话。他把两句写到自己的纸上，好让这场争论不再关在一间屋里。
Iran can still fire. Iran can still print a fee. A fee that ships do not pay is not sovereignty. A mine that has been swept is not a border. The Battle of Hormuz, if Cooper has won it, is won the way a blockade is won: the other side’s oil stays home, and everyone else’s oil leaves.
伊朗还能开火。伊朗还能印一张收费单。船不付的费用不是主权。被扫掉的水雷不是国界。霍尔木兹之战，若库珀已经打赢，赢法就是封锁的赢法：对方的油留在家里，别人的油离开。
Do not confuse residual danger with residual rule. A wounded state can still kill a sailor. That is not the same as holding the gate. President Trump’s two posts say the gate has changed hands. The next test is whether the 94 percent holds when the next missile leaves the coast.
不要把剩余的危险说成剩余的统治。一个带伤的政权仍能打死一名水手。那不是守住大门。川普总统的两条帖说大门已经换手。下一场检验是：下一枚导弹离岸时，百分之九十四还在不在。
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