【64tianwang, 9:05 p.m. PDT, October 15, 2026】(Edited by Tianwang Volunteer) 【天网美西时间2026年10月15日晚上9时05分讯】（天网义工编辑）
President Trump posted on Truth Social today. He shared a Wall Street Journal opinion piece by Mark Skousen titled “Gross Output Signals an Economic Surge.” Business-to-business spending is booming, and solely looking at gross domestic product misses this.
川普总统今天在Truth Social发帖。他分享了《华尔街日报》马克·斯库森的观点文章，标题是“总产出发出经济激增信号”。企业对企业支出正在激增，只看国内生产总值会错过这一点。
Business-to-business spending is exploding upward at double-digit rates. Gross output is running ahead of GDP. 企业对企业支出以两位数的速度向上爆发。总产出跑在国内生产总值前面。
Last year stagnation was a legitimate concern. Real gross domestic product rose only 2.2%. In the fourth quarter, real business-to-business spending declined at an annual rate of 0.5%, and real GDP declined at an annual rate of 2.2%. The supply chain experienced stagnation. Consumer spending was robust, but there was a mild business recession in 2025. There is a better, broader statistic that tells what is really going on in the economy. Known as gross output, or GO, it measures spending at all stages of production. Supply-chain economics is big business. Total spending in the intermediate stages of production amounted to about $35 trillion in 2025, more than GDP ($31 trillion). Business spending in the supply chain is much bigger and more volatile than final consumption and does a better job of measuring the ups and downs of the business cycle.
去年停滞是合理担忧。实际国内生产总值只增长了2.2%。第四季度实际企业对企业支出按年率下降了0.5%，实际国内生产总值按年率下降了2.2%。供应链经历了停滞。消费者支出稳健，但2025年有轻度商业衰退。有一个更广泛的统计数字，能更好地说明经济真正在发生什么。它叫总产出，或GO，衡量生产所有阶段的支出。供应链经济学规模很大。2025年中间阶段的总支出约35万亿美元，超过国内生产总值（31万亿美元）。供应链中的企业支出比最终消费大得多、波动也大得多，能更好地衡量商业周期的起伏。
Good news: business activity is quickly changing this year and is exploding upward at double-digit rates. It started in the first quarter and now has been confirmed. In the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a pickup in gross output. On Wednesday it was revised upward by 0.6% for a real return of 2.3% for the first quarter. Unlike GDP, it includes the value of the supply chain and all business-to-business spending. Wednesday’s release of second-quarter GO was a blockbuster. GO is suddenly growing faster than GDP, a significant positive trend, and one that suggests real GDP in the third quarter could be explosive. Second-quarter GO grew 5% in real terms, compared with real GDP growth of only 2.2%. The difference is in the value of the supply chain. Business-to-business spending more than doubled compared with the first quarter and grew 13.8% in the second quarter. This is the fastest growth in business activity since the bureau started measuring the GO statistic in 2005 (excluding the postpandemic rebounds 2021-22).
好消息是：商业活动今年正在迅速改变，并以两位数的速度向上爆发。它从第一季度开始，现在已被确认。第一季度，经济分析局报告总产出回升。周三它被向上修正了0.6%，第一季度实际回报为2.3%。与国内生产总值不同，它包括供应链的价值以及所有企业对企业支出。周三发布的第二季度总产出是个大突破。总产出突然比国内生产总值增长得更快，这是一个显著的积极趋势，表明第三季度实际国内生产总值可能爆发。第二季度总产出实际增长了5%，相比之下实际国内生产总值只增长了2.2%。差异在供应链的价值。企业对企业支出比第一季度翻了一倍多，第二季度增长了13.8%。这是自经济分析局2005年开始衡量总产出统计以来最快的商业活动增长（不包括疫情后2021-22年的反弹）。
Spending on AI and data centers is behind the explosive growth in business activity and capital spending. 对人工智能和数据中心的支出，是商业活动和资本支出爆发式增长的背后原因。
Moreover, business spending is growing faster than consumer spending, which grew only 3.8% in the second quarter compared with business spending increasing at a double-digit rate. Spending on AI and data centers is undoubtedly behind the explosive growth in business activity and capital spending in the U.S. Foreign investment might also be contributing. Most economists focus on GDP when gauging economic outlook. But GO should be viewed as the top line in national income accounting, and GDP as the bottom line. Both metrics are essential to understanding where the economy is headed.
此外，企业支出增长快于消费者支出，后者第二季度仅增长3.8%，而企业支出以两位数的速度增长。对人工智能和数据中心的支出无疑是美国商业活动和资本支出爆发式增长背后的原因。外国投资也可能在贡献。大多数经济学家在衡量经济前景时只关注国内生产总值。但总产出应该被视为国民收入账户的顶线，国内生产总值是底线。两个指标对理解经济走向都很重要。
Skousen holds a chair in free enterprise at Chapman University and is author of “The Making of Modern Economics.” President Trump shared the piece. The numbers are in the article. The signal is that the broader measure is already running ahead of the one most people watch.
斯库森在查普曼大学持有自由企业主席职位，是《现代经济学的形成》一书的作者。川普总统分享了这篇文章。数字在文章里。信号是：更广泛的衡量指标已经跑在大多数人盯着的那个前面。
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Related 天网相关链接： https://www.wsj.com/opinion/gross-output-signals-an-economic-surge https://64tianwang.net/archives/4890 https://64tianwang.net/archives/4881 https://64tianwang.net/archives/4876
配图文件： go_chart_64tianwang.jpg power_grid_64tianwang.jpg
